Cai Tongguan -The global system is in flux. Geopolitical tensions, “de-risking,” and a fragmenting economic landscape are challenging long-held assumptions.
By denying China access to EUV, Washington believed it had a durable choke point. Recent reports suggest that assumption merits reconsideration.
China’s economic ascent was engineered by a single, formidable piston: massive investment in physical assets. Today that engine is spluttering. This marks the painful, precarious end of an era and the start of a challenge to forge a new one.
China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) outlines a vision of “Chinese-style modernisation” focused on tech self-reliance, green growth, and domestic resilience.
Former PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan analyzes the US dollar’s inherent “twofold dilemma”—wanting a weaker currency for trade while maintaining its global dominance. He explores four potential challengers—the euro, renminbi, SDR, and digital currencies—and the opportunity for a new, multipolar international monetary system.